Today, July 13th is all about Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) and thanks to an insightful upgrade by Meredith Whitney, Goldman shares are lifting the equity markets. Expecting the U.S. economy to deteriorate? So is Whitney, and as things get worse for everyone, Goldman is going to come to the rescue.
Today's upgrade on Goldman is a glass half-empty hurrah, Whitney's bullish argument for Goldman is based on her fundamentally bearish take on the U.S. economy, and the state of the U.S. financials. "Specifically," said the head of the Meredith Whitney Advisory Group, "we expect a tsunami of debt issuance from federal, state and local governments ramping up debt issuance to fund woefully underfunded budget gaps."
She expects most of what Goldman will earn will be tied to those factors. She added that she anticipates corporate debt issuance to be at least 60% as strong as peak cycle levels, reflecting sizable debt maturity rolls. "Given fewer players in the market, not only is Goldman benefiting from market share gains on these products, but more widely in the derivatives products." Her report comes a day before Goldman is due to release its second quarter results.
Goldman, which received Uncle Sam's permission to repay its bailout funds, has consistently been singled out by analysts as the strongest financial firm in the wake of the crisis. In a report published by Whitney earlier this year, Goldman was the bright spot among otherwise weak prospects. (See "Forbes.com -- Whitney: Bank Losses Through 2010.").
Take what you will from Meredith Whitney's position, her "Buy" recommendation on GS shares with a 12-month price target of $186. Think of buying Goldman as a hedge for your portfolio, at this point, any help is good. Happy Safe Investing.
SOURCE: http://www.forbes.com/2009/07/13/goldman-sachs-whitney-markets-equity-financial.html